India has been compelled to vacate the Ayni Air Base in Tajikistan under pressure from Russia and China a move that signals a major diplomatic and strategic setback for New Delhi’s ambitions in Central Asia. The development limits India’s intelligence and operational reach in Afghanistan and exposes shifting regional power dynamics favoring Beijing and Moscow.
India’s Central Asian Foothold Lost
India’s withdrawal from the Soviet era Ayni Air Base marks the end of a two decade long presence in Tajikistan. The base, refurbished by India in 2002 with a $70 million investment, was a cornerstone of New Delhi’s regional strategy during the U.S. led war on terror.
Equipped to host Ilyushin 76 transport aircraft and Sukhoi Su-30MKI fighter jets, Ayni provided India rare forward operating access beyond the Himalayas. It was also linked with the Farkhor military hospital, which supported the Northern Alliance during its resistance to the Taliban.
Now, with India vacating the base, its influence in Afghanistan’s security landscape is significantly reduced a quiet but consequential strategic retreat.
Moscow and Beijing Tighten Their Grip
Sources indicate that the decision followed coordinated pressure from Russia and China, who view Central Asia as a zone of shared strategic interest. Moscow’s influence remains dominant in the region through the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), while Beijing’s expanding economic footprint under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) reinforces its leverage.
For India, this represents a harsh reality check. Despite maintaining close defence ties with Russia and serving as one of its top crude oil buyers since 2022, New Delhi’s leverage proved temporary. The Kremlin’s growing alignment with Beijing driven by Western isolation over Ukraine has left little room for India in the Eurasian balance.
Strategic Autonomy Under Pressure
India’s forced exit from Tajikistan underscores the challenges facing its policy of “strategic autonomy” the longheld ambition to balance great power relations without formal alliances. While India has sought to diversify defence partnerships with France, the U.S., and Israel, its historic dependence on Russian arms continues to shape perceptions in Moscow.
At the same time, India’s closeness with Washington and participation in frameworks like the Quad alliance have fueled distrust in Russia’s security establishment. Caught between competing power blocs, New Delhi’s balancing act appears increasingly fragile.
Losing Reach in Afghanistan’s Theatre
The loss of Ayni also erases India’s only military foothold in proximity to Afghanistan. The base previously enabled reconnaissance and intelligence operations vital to India’s counterterrorism interests.
Without this platform, India’s engagement in Afghanistan will likely remain limited to diplomatic channels and development aid, curbing its ability to influence outcomes in a region where China, Pakistan, and Russia now hold greater sway.
Russia’s Priorities Made Clear
Analysts note that the episode reaffirms Russia’s strategic hierarchy one that places Chinese sensitivities above Indian partnerships. Central Asia, long considered Moscow’s backyard, remains a red line for external military involvement not coordinated with the Kremlin.
By siding with Beijing’s regional calculus, Russia has effectively signaled that India’s expanding Western ties will not be tolerated in spaces Moscow deems critical to its influence.
Conclusion: A Strategic Reality Check
India’s eviction from the Ayni Air Base is more than a logistical loss it reflects a broader recalibration of power across Eurasia. Central Asia’s geopolitical center of gravity has tilted decisively toward the China Russia axis, leaving New Delhi’s ambitions constrained by geography and diplomacy.
As India strives to assert itself as an independent global actor, the Ayni episode serves as a stark reminder that strategic autonomy without enduring partnerships can turn into strategic isolation.
Discover more from JUST UNTOLD STORY
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
